There is a lot of speculation and some say will to form a coalition government in Seychelles. There is talk about a United Opposition forming an alliance with the sole purpose of removing the PL from power in 2011. Some also speculate in a new party being formed as well as the termination of the SNP as we know it today. Regardless of the differences between speculation, will and reality I believe that we will soon face an interesting political development in the months to come and up to the 2011 prezidential election.
The opposition has had a hard time winning elections since the re-introduction of the multi-party system and reaching their goal of taking power over from the SPPF/PL although gettting as much as 46% of the votes in the last election. Why is that so and why has there not been a coalition government? Well, the main reason is that Seychelles has basically never had more than two parties big enough to be able to form an alliance that has enough majority to overthrow the party with most votes. In recent elections our voters have had the choice between two parties, namely SPPF(PL) and SNP as the third alternative DP refrained from participating. As we know the last election gave the SPPF/PL majority leaving the opposition as powerless bystanders.
So what's the remedy to 'kick the PL ou' as many put it? Kicking the PL out is in theory simple, but requires a bit of devotion and determination from all other parties who want to give James Michel and his party the boot. First of all, the voters must be given multiple options, not merely a dual option. A dual option often gives the choice of two evils, especially in teh case of Seychelles where the voters are fairly split. You are either pro SPPF/PL or con and if you are con then whoever the other option is will get your vote despite the option being just as bad, i.e a lot of Seychellois vote in pure despite of the happenings of June 5th 1977. Back in '76 people were either for Mancham or for Rene, today they are either for Rene or against Rene as he is still seen to be the one in charge and the PL exploits that to its extent.
What will a worthy multiple choice do in an election? First of all, people will no longer have the choice of the evil that they know and the evil they do not know and instead have an additional choice which canfirst of all be a magnet to votes that are in doubt in addition to a sign of hope and change. A new alternative to PL and SNP can represent a positive change in Seychelles especially for those who feel they have been struggling the last 15 or so years. A third altenative will naturally have the potential to steal votes from both PL and SNP, hence reducing the PL's majority from let's say 54% to maybe 48% or lower which is an achievement enough to topple the PL dominance in Seychelles politics. All a third party needs in order to remove the PL is to gain slightly more than 4% of the votes, this based on the last election's figures. 4%, that's all! Then what?
If the PL are reduced to 49% popularity that means that the other participating parties have a majority of votes and can form a coalition and finally 'kick the PL out' according to plan. A coalition will leave the PL as minority and a new coalition government can be formed. However, having majority is one thing, but having majority as part of a coalition can easily lead to collision. The mutual objectives of non PL-ism may well be to get rid of the PL, but running a country, even one as small as Seychelles, can prove to be harder than expected, let alone forming such a government.
It would be natural for the biggest part of the coalition to get the prezidentila post, but conflicts in interest, conflicts of opinion and not least the strong Seychellois character regarding the ongoings of the past can easily lead to fighting behind the wheel and a certain route to collision. I would therefore strongly recommend that before an eventual United Opposition gets together to 'kick out PL', other mutual goals and most important of all disagreements are settled, agreed upon and a crystal clear set of rules of cooperation are written before any attempt is made to form a coalition.
Another thing that is important to bear in mind is the fact that a coalition government in Seychelles does not necessarily have to consist of for instance SNP+DP. It can just as well consist of PL+SNP or PL+DP. By having an open mind, we should realize that even politicians sometimes have to make the choice between two evils, not just the voters.
Patrick X
E-mail: patrick_x@live.co.uk
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